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September 27, 2026

1:03 PM PDT

AND THEN THERE WERE (ONE or TWO) !

WELCOME BACK TO OUR LITTLE FANTASY WORLD WE CALL

webmaster@pennantsolutions.com

"MAXIMUM POSSIBLE TIE (THAI ?) -LAND"

UPDATE FOR FINAL GAMES ON FINAL SUNDAY

1. NL WC3 is Down to Two Teams (PHI, ARI) - One Game Each

2. Low-Probability Outcomes Where ARI Could Clinch WC3 Outright Are Gone

3. Only One Path to Playoffs Still Left for ARI - PHI L, ARI W Creates Tie at 87 W;

ARI Wins Tie-Breaker by Virtue of Better W-L vs. NL W than PHI Has vs. NL E

4. This Scenario for ARI has only 25% Probability, Compared to Sat.'s 31% Chance at PO

End Sun. Update at 1:03 pm PDT

LET'S SORT ALL THIS OUT (& TIE-BREAKERS THAT GO WITH IT)

ENTERING SATURDAY'S NL GAMES

1. There are FIVE games left involving the FOUR teams competing for the 3 NL Wild Cards:

2026 :Links not updated yet

CUBS have One, PHI have Two, and ARI is at S D for Two Games.

2. With FIVE GAMES, we have 32 POSSIBLE GAME OUTCOMES

For More Details,

3. We Will Analyze How Those 32 OUTCOMES Affect the FOUR Teams & Their WC Seeding

Click on the Links Below

NL DIVISION STDGS

We Start with the Fact That the FOUR Teams Are "Laddered", i.e. Each Team is One Game

NL WILD CARD STDGS

Behind the Team Immediately in Front of It; We ASSUME That Each of the FIVE Games is a

Toss-Up, i.e., Either Team is Equally Like to Win Each of the Remaining Games.

AL DIVISION STDGS

AL WILD CARD STDGS

SAN DIEGO

Obviously in the Best Shape at 89 W. CANNOT Miss Playoffs.

Will Clinch WC1 Outright at 91 or 90 W (24 Cases Combined).

Also Clinches WC1 Outright at 89 W in 3 Cases (CUBS, PHI Win < 89)

Five Cases Involve Ties at 89 W:

Lose TB to CUBS in 3 Cases, S D Finishes as WC 2

Lose TB to PHI in 1 Case, S D Finishes as WC 2

Lose 3-Way TB to CUBS & PHI in 1 Case, S D Finishes as WC 3

Summary: S D Finishes as WC 1 in 84%, WC 2 in 13%, WC 3 in 3%

CUBS

Starting at 88 W, Also CANNOT Miss Playoffs.

Will Clinch WC2 Outright at 89 or 88 W (12 Cases Combined).

Also Clinches WC3 Outright at 88 W (3 Cases)

Seventeen (17) Cases Involve Ties; Fortunately for CUBS,

They Control ALL Their H to H Tiebreakers

CUBS Finish as WC 1 in 4 Cases When Tied w/ S D (2-Way & 3-Way)

CUBS Finish as WC 2 in 12 Cases (9 w/ PHI, 1 w/ ARI, (2) 3-Way)

CUBS Finish as WC 3 in 1 Case When Tied w/ ARI

Summary: CUBS Finish as WC 1 in 13%, WC 2 in 75%, WC 3 in 13%

PHI

Starting at 87 W, CAN Miss Playoffs.

Clinches WC2 Outright at 89 W (3 Cases)

Clinches WC3 Outright at 88 or 87 W (8 Cases)

Misses WC3 Outright at 87 W (2 Cases)

Nineteen (19) Cases Involve Ties; Make Playoffs in 11, Miss in 8

3-Way w/ S D - PHI is WC2 (1 Case)

3-Way w/ ARI - PHI OOP (2 Cases)

2-Way w/ S D - PHI is WC1 (1 Case)

2-Way w/ CUBS - PHI is WC3 (9 Cases)

2-Way w/ ARI - PHI OOP (6 Cases)

Summary: PHI WC 1 in 3%, WC 2 in 13%, WC 3 in 53%; Miss PO 31%

ARI

Starting at 86 W, CAN Miss Playoffs.

Misses PO Outright at 86,87, or 88 W (8,12,1 Cases, resp.)

Clinches WC3 Outright at 88 W (1 Case)

Ten (10) Cases Involve Ties; Make Playoffs in 9 of the 10

3-Way Ties - Reduce to ARI vs. PHI, ARI is WC3 (2 Cases)

2-Way w/ CUBS - Lose 2, but Make WC3 in 1 (2 Cases)

2-Way w/ PHI - ARI WC3 (better Div Record (6 Cases))

Summary: ARI WC 3 in 31%; Miss PO 69%

WE ARE BACK and OFF TO THE (2026 PENNANT) RACES !!!

(NEW content for 2026 only began on SUN. 9-06 with GIANTS "EARLY" ELIM,

so NONE of the links in the right-hand column have been updated for 2026.

My apologies, but I hope to correct that soon).

Question from 2017:

Why did NL Office take 2 tries to Decide LA had Clinched Playoffs 9-12-2017?

(according to Bill Shaikin of the L A Times)? We may never know.

Previous Headlines

Posted Sat. SEPT. 26, 2026, 3:44 PM PDT

AND THEN THERE WERE (THREE or FOUR) !

Posted Wed. SEPT. 23, 2026, 11:09 PM PDT

BULLETIN ! THEY'RE ALIVE !

"THEY" BEING SEA, WHO JUST WALKED OFF HOU & HADER !

Posted Wed. SEPT. 23, 2026, 7:54 PM PDT

AND THEN THERE WERE SEVEN !

Posted Tue. SEPT. 22, 2026, 7:35 PM PDT

AND THEN THERE WERE SEVEN !

Posted Mon. SEPT. 21, 2026, 3:48 PM PDT

AND THEN THERE WERE SEVEN !

Posted Sun. SEPT. 20, 2026, 11:46 AM PDT

AND THEN THERE WERE EIGHT !

WELCOME BACK TO OUR LITTLE FANTASY WORLD WE CALL

"MAXIMUM POSSIBLE TIE (THAI ?) -LAND"

Posted Fri. SEPT. 18, 2026, 10:06 PM PDT

MAXIMUM POSSIBLE TIES ?

WOULD YOU BELIEVE 7 TEAMS - IN AL ?

WAIT A MINUTE, THIS JUST IN ! MAKE THAT NINE (9) TEAMS !!!

Posted Sat. SEPT. 12, 2026, 3:56 PM PDT

ONE WIN by EITHER ARI or SD Now Enough for KO !

UPDATE - SD W, NATS OUT @ 3:48 PM PDT (Details Below)

Posted Fri. SEPT. 11, 2026, 3:26 AM PDT

SAT. UPDATE for Western Insomniacs, Eastern Early Risers

Posted Sun. SEPT. 6, 2026, 7:13 pm PDT

BULLETIN:

GIANTS w/ One Foot in Grave - Now It's Two !!

or as Yogi might say, "It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over - But NOW IT IS OVER !!

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