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P E N N A N T S O L U T I O N S © |
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HOME PAGE |
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"Early"
Clinches |
Magic Nos. |
Magic No. |
September
23, 2019 |
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NL
ELIM SUMMARY 19 |
SUMMARY of 2019 NL
"EARLY CLINCHES" |
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Detected |
at Clinch |
"Delay" |
7:19 PM
PDT |
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NL DIVISION
STDGS |
DETECTED BY PENNANT
SOLUTIONS © |
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1 |
1 |
4 |
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NL WC STDGS |
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At Clinch: -------> |
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TEAMS |
Magic Number: |
MN "CLINCH" |
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PS CLINCH |
Loss |
Min |
Ldr |
--------- CAUSED BY --------- |
RAISING |
at |
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#DAYS |
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DIV |
TEAM |
DAY |
DATE |
Sum |
SGR |
L |
W |
LOSS to and / or WINS by: |
LOSS TARGET |
CLINCH |
Current |
DATE |
LATE |
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Already
Clinched |
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NL WC |
Atlanta |
SAT. |
9-14 |
201 |
9 |
70 |
93 |
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Win vs. WAS |
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STL, CUBS, MIL |
1 |
0 |
9-18 |
4 |
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NL WC |
St. Louis |
SUN. |
9-22 |
74 |
0 |
74 |
89 |
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Win vs. CUBS |
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CUBS, NYM |
0 |
0 |
9-22 |
0 |
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3rd W C/ |
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<------------ Clincher -------------> |
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#Non-Combo L |
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Div 2nd |
Min L |
Current |
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Mag. |
Pennant |
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Sum of |
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Needed to Increase |
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Approaching
Clinch |
Losses |
Target |
Wins |
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No. |
Solution © |
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Losses |
SGR |
MinLoss |
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NL WC |
Washington |
74 |
75 |
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85 |
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4 |
3 |
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WAS, PHI |
144 |
5 |
1 |
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RECENT HIGHLIGHTS &
PREVIEW OF COMING ATTRACTIONS: WHO'S
IN, WHO'S NEXT ? |
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*NEW* |
8. STL CLINCHED WC SUNDAY as they Swept CUBS,
Eliminating CUBS from NL C (but NOT WC) at same time |
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9-23 |
A.
This is a Magic No. Clinch AND Elim, Based on 89 W + 74 L |
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7:15
PM |
B. But it is Worth Mentioning Because of One
Subtle Nuance - It Depends on the DIVISION(S) of the Teams Involved |
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PDT |
C.
At First Glance, STL Did Not Clinch, Because STL Still Competing w/
WAS & MIL for 2 Available WC Slots |
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D.
BUT IF STL Finishes 3rd Among These 3 Teams, STL
Still Claims 2nd WC Because MIL WILL HAVE WON NL CENTRAL |
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E.
Subtle Nuance ? NOT A CLINCH if 3 Teams Are From 3
Different Divisions; in that case, 3 Teams Vying for 2 WC Slots, |
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1 of Them Ends Up Out of
Playoffs; Our Case, 3 Teams Vying for 3 Spots (incl. 1
Div. Title), All 3 COULD Still Make Playoffs |
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PREVIOUS
National League POSTS |
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7. ATLANTA CLINCHED WC SATURDAY BY BEATING NATS for 93rd WIN
(MinLoss Already 70) |
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9-14 |
A.
Clinch Based on Winning 1 More than "First Team Out"; to
Clinch 2nd WC, Win 1 More than Best 3rd WC Can win |
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7:30 PM |
B. Reqts. for MinLoss of 70 L: Top 3 WC Teams + Ties
Can Still Finish with 70 L or LESS |
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PDT |
C.
Starting SAT, 3 WC Teams APPEARED to Have Shot at
<= 69 L.
But 2 (CUBS, MIL) are Part of NL C Scramble - |
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1 of Top 3 (incldg. STL) Must Lose >= 70, Due
to 9 SGR Among Them (SGR = Shared Games Remaining) |
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D.
That Pushes MinLoss to 70, because 3rd & 4th Best WC are then PHI
(70 L) & 3rd Team in NL C (70 L), |
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Leaving WAS and 2nd Team in NL C
as only 2 WC Teams That Can Still Finish < 70 L |
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6. ATLANTA CAN CLINCH WC SATURDAY TWO DIFFERENT WAYS: |
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9-14 |
A.
Simplest ATL Clinch By SATURDAY:
Just Win, Baby.
MinLoss Already at 70 L. 93RD
WIN Would Clinch |
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2:15 AM |
B.
Advance MinLoss to 71 L. Requires PHI AND CUBS to LOSE (Latter
Guarantees 71 L by ONE of NL C Top 3) |
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PDT |
C.
What Does B. Accomplish?
Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L. ATL Already Won #92 Friday - CLINCH
!! |
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D.
STL, MIL Loss No Help - 3 SGR
Already "Baked Into" MinLoss (CUBS' L not only Equal to STL, MIL -
1,000 % Better ! ) |
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5. ATLANTA WC Clinch Window CLOSED When NYM
Swept AZ THURSDAY - Not Open Again Until Saturday |
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9-13 |
A.
NO CLINCH Because MinLoss Remained at 70 L (NYM, PHI both 70 L: Top 3
NL C no worse than 70 L); ATL = 91 W |
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2:30
AM |
B.
Simplest ATL Clinch By SATURDAY:
WIN 2 Straight vs. WAS |
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PDT |
C.
Else: Raise MinLoss to 71 (NYM
Lose 1 to L A; CUBS Lose 1 to PIT; PHI Lose 1 to BOS) AND ATL WIN 1 vs. WAS |
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D.
ALL of These Possible FRIDAY EXCEPT PHI idle
until SATURDAY |
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E.
What Does This Accomplish?
Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L, ATL 92 W - CLINCH !! |
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F.
STL, MIL Loss No Help - 3 SGR
Already "Baked Into" MinLoss (CUBS' L not only Equal to STL, MIL -
1,000 % Better ! ) |
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4. ATLANTA WC Clinch STILL ALIVE & WELL
for THURSDAY - AND Magic No. Could Be 1, 2, or 3 When
They Do !!! |
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9-12 |
A.
Wednesday's Games Reduced Magic No. to FOUR, BUT PENNANT SOLUTION © is
Now Down to Two |
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1:00
AM |
B.
NEXT WIN by ATL IS #92 - AND If It Comes Thu., That
Also Pushes PHI to 71 L |
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PDT |
C.
NYM WON WED. Giving AZ 71 L - Clinch Requires AZ to Return The Favor |
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D.
STL, CUBS LOST WED. 1 MORE LOSS
Among Top 3 NL C Teams Would Guarantee 71 L for One of Them, Due to 10 SGR |
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E.
What Does This Accomplish?
Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L, ATL 92 W - CLINCH !! |
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9-11 |
3. Next Up is ATL - They Can Clinch a WC by
THURSDAY - AND Magic No. Could STILL BE 1, 2, or 3 When
They Do !!! |
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4:00
PM |
A.
Current Magic No. is FIVE, BUT PENNANT SOLUTION is Already Down to
Four |
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PDT |
B.
FIRST Step is ATL WINS TWO - BUT That Also Pushes
PHI to 71 L |
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C.
Also Requires AZ & NYM at 71 L - So They Need to Split Next 2 Games |
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D.
LAST Step is to Get 1 of Top 3 NL C Teams to 71 L - but That Only
Requires 3 L Among Them, Due to 10 SGR |
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E.
What Does This Accomplish?
Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L, ATL 92 W - CLINCH !! |
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2. L A Magic No. For NL WEST is ONE (L A W
OR AZ L); There IS A WAY to CLINCH WC Before DIV, But
Not Until WEDNESDAY |
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9-10 |
A.
Clinching WC Ahead of West Means Keeping AZ at 69 L, AND Having Only
One Other WC Team w/ < 70 L. |
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4:30 PM |
B.
So Here Is What It Will Take: 2 LOSSES By L A, 2 WINS By AZ to
Keep NL WEST RACE ALIVE |
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PDT |
C.
To Insure That Only 1 Other WC Team Besides AZ Finishes w/ FEWER THAN
70 L, It Takes the Following: |
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- 2 LOSSES by MIL, 1 LOSS by PHI, 4
LOSSES COMBINED by STL, CUBS; This Pushes MIL & PHI to 70 L |
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- It Also Guarantees EITHER STL or
CUBS Reach 70 L. That Leaves AZ & WAS as Only 2 WC Teams w/ < 70 L. |
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- And That Leaves 93 WINS as the Requirement for WC Clinch, Which L A Already Has |
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1. L A CANNOT Clinch NL W Until TUESDAY -
BUT They CAN CLINCH WC on MONDAY, OR EARLIER ON TUESDAY |
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9-08 |
A.
Magic No. is 2 to Clinch NL W vs. 2nd Place AZ (68 Losses, L A Has 93
Wins) |
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10:30 AM |
B.
3 Teams (AZ, MIL, PHI) Are TIED FOR 3rd WC (1st Teams "Out of
Playoffs"), SO 3RD WC (WC3) STILL AT 68 LOSSES |
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PDT |
C.
IF WC3 LOSS TARGET (MinLoss) EXCEEDS AZ Losses (e.g., MinLoss 69 L vs.AZ 68 L), L A Could Clinch WC BEFORE DIV |
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D.
Table Above Shows That AZ & MIL Already Part of Combos Where 1
Team MUST REACH 69 L |
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(Updated |
E.
Need 1 LOSS EACH by PHI, MIL MONDAY To Insure WC3 MinLoss Goes to 69 L (while AZ Remains at 68 L
in West) |
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2:30 PM) |
F.
If That Happens, L A Only Needs W vs. BAL to
Clinch WC |
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G.
L A Could Even BACK INTO WC CLINCH If MinLoss =
70 L;
Requires 2 L In AZ Combo, 2 L In MIL Combo, AND 3 L in PHI Combo |
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Tags: NL East, Braves, Atllanta, Mets, New York,
NYM, Marlins, Miami, Phillies, Philadelphia, Nationals, Washington, NL Wild
Card, "Early Clinch", Magic No., |
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Tags: NL Central, Cubs, Chicago, Reds,
Cincinnati, Brewers, Milwaukee, Pirates, Pittsburgh, Cardinals, St. Louis,
Clinch, Magic Number, Elimination, E# |
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Tags: NL West, Diamondbacks, D'backs, Arizona,
Rockies, Colorado, Dodgers, LA, L A, Los Angeles, Padres, San Diego, S D, SD,
Giants, San Francisco, S F, SF |
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Tags: AL East, Orioles, Baltimore, Yankees, New
York, NYY, Red Sox, Boston, Rays, Tampa Bay, Blue Jays, Toronto, AL Wild
Card, 2nd Wild Card, WC 2, Playoffs |
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Tags: AL Central, Royals, Kansas City, K C, KC,
Twins, Minnesota, Tigers, Detroit, Indians, Cleveland, White Sox, Chicago,
3rd Wild Card, WC 3, WC3, WC2 |
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Tags: AL West, Angels, Anaheim, Los Angeles, LAA,
Rangers, Texas, Astros, Houston, A's, Athletics, Oakland, Mariners, Seattle,
Baseball, Pennant Race, 2019 |
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Tags:
Pennant Solution (c) |
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© Copyright 1984, 1994,
2005, 2010, 2012, 2013-2019 by Steven Patent |
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