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HOME PAGE     "Early" Clinches Magic Nos. Magic No. September 23, 2019    
NL ELIM SUMMARY 19 SUMMARY of 2019 NL "EARLY CLINCHES"   Detected at Clinch "Delay" 7:19 PM PDT    
NL DIVISION STDGS DETECTED BY PENNANT SOLUTIONS   1 1 4        
NL WC STDGS            
      At Clinch: ------->       TEAMS Magic Number: MN "CLINCH"      
  PS CLINCH Loss Min Ldr --------- CAUSED BY --------- RAISING at     #DAYS      
DIV TEAM DAY DATE Sum SGR L W LOSS to and / or WINS by: LOSS TARGET CLINCH Current DATE LATE        
Already Clinched                      
NL WC Atlanta SAT. 9-14 201 9 70 93   Win vs. WAS   STL, CUBS, MIL 1 0 9-18 4      
NL WC St. Louis SUN. 9-22 74 0 74 89   Win vs. CUBS   CUBS, NYM 0 0 9-22 0      
                       
      3rd W C/   <------------ Clincher ------------->       #Non-Combo L      
      Div 2nd Min L Current   Mag. Pennant     Sum of   Needed to Increase    
Approaching Clinch Losses Target Wins   No. Solution     Losses SGR MinLoss      
NL WC Washington 74 75   85   4 3   WAS, PHI 144 5 1        
                         
  RECENT HIGHLIGHTS & PREVIEW OF COMING ATTRACTIONS: WHO'S IN, WHO'S NEXT ?        
                           
*NEW* 8. STL CLINCHED WC SUNDAY as they Swept CUBS, Eliminating CUBS from NL C (but NOT WC) at same time        
9-23 A. This is a Magic No. Clinch AND Elim, Based on 89 W + 74 L          
7:15 PM B. But it is Worth Mentioning Because of One Subtle Nuance - It Depends on the DIVISION(S) of the Teams Involved        
PDT C. At First Glance, STL Did Not Clinch, Because STL Still Competing w/ WAS & MIL for 2 Available WC Slots          
  D. BUT IF STL Finishes 3rd Among These 3 Teams, STL Still Claims 2nd WC Because MIL WILL HAVE WON NL CENTRAL      
  E. Subtle Nuance ? NOT A CLINCH if 3 Teams Are From 3 Different Divisions; in that case, 3 Teams Vying for 2 WC Slots,      
  1 of Them Ends Up Out of Playoffs; Our Case, 3 Teams Vying for 3 Spots (incl. 1 Div. Title), All 3 COULD Still Make Playoffs        
             
PREVIOUS National League POSTS          
           
  7. ATLANTA CLINCHED WC SATURDAY BY BEATING NATS for 93rd WIN (MinLoss Already 70)          
9-14 A. Clinch Based on Winning 1 More than "First Team Out"; to Clinch 2nd WC, Win 1 More than Best 3rd WC Can win        
7:30 PM B. Reqts. for MinLoss of 70 L: Top 3 WC Teams + Ties Can Still Finish with 70 L or LESS          
PDT C. Starting SAT, 3 WC Teams APPEARED to Have Shot at <= 69 L. But 2 (CUBS, MIL) are Part of NL C Scramble -        
  1 of Top 3 (incldg. STL) Must Lose >= 70, Due to 9 SGR Among Them (SGR = Shared Games Remaining)        
  D. That Pushes MinLoss to 70, because 3rd & 4th Best WC are then PHI (70 L) & 3rd Team in NL C (70 L),        
  Leaving WAS and 2nd Team in NL C as only 2 WC Teams That Can Still Finish < 70 L        
           
  6. ATLANTA CAN CLINCH WC SATURDAY TWO DIFFERENT WAYS:          
9-14 A. Simplest ATL Clinch By SATURDAY: Just Win, Baby. MinLoss Already at 70 L. 93RD WIN Would Clinch          
2:15 AM B. Advance MinLoss to 71 L. Requires PHI AND CUBS to LOSE (Latter Guarantees 71 L by ONE of NL C Top 3)          
PDT C. What Does B. Accomplish? Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L. ATL Already Won #92 Friday - CLINCH !!          
  D. STL, MIL Loss No Help - 3 SGR Already "Baked Into" MinLoss (CUBS' L not only Equal to STL, MIL - 1,000 % Better ! )        
           
  5. ATLANTA WC Clinch Window CLOSED When NYM Swept AZ THURSDAY - Not Open Again Until Saturday          
9-13 A. NO CLINCH Because MinLoss Remained at 70 L (NYM, PHI both 70 L: Top 3 NL C no worse than 70 L); ATL = 91 W          
2:30 AM B. Simplest ATL Clinch By SATURDAY: WIN 2 Straight vs. WAS          
PDT C. Else: Raise MinLoss to 71 (NYM Lose 1 to L A; CUBS Lose 1 to PIT; PHI Lose 1 to BOS) AND ATL WIN 1 vs. WAS          
  D. ALL of These Possible FRIDAY EXCEPT PHI idle until SATURDAY          
  E. What Does This Accomplish? Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L, ATL 92 W - CLINCH !!        
  F. STL, MIL Loss No Help - 3 SGR Already "Baked Into" MinLoss (CUBS' L not only Equal to STL, MIL - 1,000 % Better ! )        
           
  4. ATLANTA WC Clinch STILL ALIVE & WELL for THURSDAY - AND Magic No. Could Be 1, 2, or 3 When They Do !!!          
9-12 A. Wednesday's Games Reduced Magic No. to FOUR, BUT PENNANT SOLUTION is Now Down to Two          
1:00 AM B. NEXT WIN by ATL IS #92 - AND If It Comes Thu., That Also Pushes PHI to 71 L          
PDT C. NYM WON WED. Giving AZ 71 L - Clinch Requires AZ to Return The Favor          
  D. STL, CUBS LOST WED. 1 MORE LOSS Among Top 3 NL C Teams Would Guarantee 71 L for One of Them, Due to 10 SGR        
  E. What Does This Accomplish? Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L, ATL 92 W - CLINCH !!        
           
9-11 3. Next Up is ATL - They Can Clinch a WC by THURSDAY - AND Magic No. Could STILL BE 1, 2, or 3 When They Do !!!        
4:00 PM A. Current Magic No. is FIVE, BUT PENNANT SOLUTION is Already Down to Four          
PDT B. FIRST Step is ATL WINS TWO - BUT That Also Pushes PHI to 71 L          
  C. Also Requires AZ & NYM at 71 L - So They Need to Split Next 2 Games          
  D. LAST Step is to Get 1 of Top 3 NL C Teams to 71 L - but That Only Requires 3 L Among Them, Due to 10 SGR        
  E. What Does This Accomplish? Guarantees 3rd WC AT LEAST 71 L, ATL 92 W - CLINCH !!        
           
  2. L A Magic No. For NL WEST is ONE (L A W OR AZ L); There IS A WAY to CLINCH WC Before DIV, But Not Until WEDNESDAY      
9-10 A. Clinching WC Ahead of West Means Keeping AZ at 69 L, AND Having Only One Other WC Team w/ < 70 L.          
4:30 PM B. So Here Is What It Will Take: 2 LOSSES By L A, 2 WINS By AZ to Keep NL WEST RACE ALIVE          
PDT C. To Insure That Only 1 Other WC Team Besides AZ Finishes w/ FEWER THAN 70 L, It Takes the Following:          
  - 2 LOSSES by MIL, 1 LOSS by PHI, 4 LOSSES COMBINED by STL, CUBS; This Pushes MIL & PHI to 70 L        
  - It Also Guarantees EITHER STL or CUBS Reach 70 L. That Leaves AZ & WAS as Only 2 WC Teams w/ < 70 L.        
  - And That Leaves 93 WINS as the Requirement for WC Clinch, Which L A Already Has        
               
  1. L A CANNOT Clinch NL W Until TUESDAY - BUT They CAN CLINCH WC on MONDAY, OR EARLIER ON TUESDAY        
9-08 A. Magic No. is 2 to Clinch NL W vs. 2nd Place AZ (68 Losses, L A Has 93 Wins)          
10:30 AM B. 3 Teams (AZ, MIL, PHI) Are TIED FOR 3rd WC (1st Teams "Out of Playoffs"), SO 3RD WC (WC3) STILL AT 68 LOSSES        
PDT C. IF WC3 LOSS TARGET (MinLoss) EXCEEDS AZ Losses (e.g., MinLoss 69 L vs.AZ 68 L), L A Could Clinch WC BEFORE DIV        
  D. Table Above Shows That AZ & MIL Already Part of Combos Where 1 Team MUST REACH 69 L        
(Updated E. Need 1 LOSS EACH by PHI, MIL MONDAY To Insure WC3 MinLoss Goes to 69 L (while AZ Remains at 68 L in West)        
2:30 PM) F. If That Happens, L A Only Needs W vs. BAL to Clinch WC          
  G. L A Could Even BACK INTO WC CLINCH If MinLoss = 70 L; Requires 2 L In AZ Combo, 2 L In MIL Combo, AND 3 L in PHI Combo      
               
         
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